The Ord Oracle

December 17, 2007

And The All New Market Analysis

Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Long SPX on 11/28/07 at 1469.02.
Monitoring purposes XAU: Flat.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Sector Watch: Long Healthcare (XLV) at 36.35 on 11/28/07
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S&P Market:

Above is the NYSE Trin 5. The TRIN 5 is the ARMS index close added up for five days. Reading near 6.00 or higher suggests the market is near a short term low. We have marked those areas with a red arrow on the chart above. Notice how well the TRIN 5 reading above 6.00 have picked out the lows in the NYSE over the last year. Friday, the Trin 5 closed at 6.95 and suggests the NYSE is at or very near a low. Also this week is Option expiration week which normally has a bullish bias at the end of the week. There is a gap at the 144 range on the SPY which equates to 1440 range on the SPX and the market may head there before turning up. We are on an intermediate term buy signal and our minimum upside target is the high in October near the 157.5 range on the SPY and 1575 range on the SPX. We are long the SPX at 1469.02.

On last Wednesday’s report, we said, “To get a buy signal on the NYSE using the NYSE McClellan Summation index, first the Summation index must trade below -500 (to indicate an oversold condition) and second the Summation index turns up from below -500 and creates the buy signal. On the first rally off the low after the Summation index turns up from below -500, the Oscillator must reach +170 or higher. The +170 or higher reading on the Oscillator proves initiation to the upside. On the last bottom (November Bottom) the Summation index reached near -1500 and has turned up creating a buy signal. On the rally form that low the Oscillator reached +220 (on Monday) and confirms the bottom. Normally when the McClellan Oscillator reaches past +170, the market on a short term basis is extended and short term consolidation can form.” Right now the market is experiencing this consolidation. With today’s negative A/D line the Oscillator may reach near -100 and will be similar to the period reached in July 2006 (see chart above) where the Oscillator reached +220 and then retraced to near -100 before a strong rally began. Remember also that the TRIN 5 reached 6.95 on Friday’s close and is also very bullish for the short term.
Also XLV (Healthcare) McClellan Summation index recently has had a bullish crossover and has triggered a buy signal by that method.
Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Long Healthcare sector (XLV) at 36.35 on 11/28/07. Long POWR at 13.70 on 12/14/07.

Above is the Gold Miners index (GDX), courtesy of www.ETFinvestmentoutlook.com. Markets usually follow the direction of the McClellan Summation index and right now the Summation index is still heading lower. Once the McClellan Summation index starts to bend up will be the time to watch for a bullish signal, The A/D line has not had a bullish crossover of it’s downtrend line and no bullish signal has been triggered by that method (see bottom window of chart above). Support comes in at the previous highs which are near the 43 range on GDX, which equates to the 160 range on the XAU and both indexes are at or near these levels now. A potential bullish signal may get triggered near current levels. For now we remain flat the XAU. We are very bullish on the bigger timeframes and have a target on the XAU near the 250 to 300 range. We are watching PLM, RBY and TRE.
We are holding NXG, recent purchase at 3.26, has support near 2.80 range. We are also holding CDE (long at 4.08, support near 3.90).
Bought TRE at 4.93 on 8/1/07 sold 10/1/07 at 5.85 for 19% gain. Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought UXG at 5.17 on 6/25/07 and sold 10/1/07 at 6.17 for 19% gain. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. Bought PLM at 3.73 on 6/1/07. Sold PLM on 10/10/07 at 3.75 for modest gain. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

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Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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