The Ord Oracle

November 12, 2007
And The All New Market Analysis

Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Short SPX on 10/15/07 at 1548.71, covered 10/23 at 1519.59 for gain of 1.88%.
Monitoring purposes XAU: Flat.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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S&P Market:

The chart above is the NYSE ($NYA). We have said in the past that the SPX may be developing a “Right Shoulder” of a Head and Shoulders Bottom. If the current trading range persists for another couple of weeks, then that would increase the probabilities that the big pattern that started back in June is indeed a bullish “Head and Shoulders Bottom”. Head and Shoulders patterns are usually symmetric. If the Left shoulder has three humps, so should the Right Shoulder. So far the Potential Right Shoulder has two Humps. For the third Hump to form a bottom, it should form near today’s lows. The reason is that the NYSE is at Neck Line support as well as at the 200 day moving average which also acts as support. If the NYSE holds near current levels, it would be a bullish sign on the bigger timeframes. If indeed the NYSE finds support near levels and bounces, this condition will form a Third Hump. The next time down after the completion of the Third Hump may line up the buy signal.

Above is the McClellan Summation index for the NYSE. Today’s negative Advance/Decline line pushed the McClellan Summation down to 253.52 and in bullish territory. On the NYSE chart above, we have drawn the Neck Line of the Head and Shoulders bottom which comes in near the 9600 range. The NYSE closed today at 9570.04 and in the targeted region. On last Wednesday’s report we said, “If in the coming days the market does head lower to the 9600 range the NYSE should find support and especially if the Summation index reaches near
-300 a bullish signal could get triggered.” On the chart above we have indicated in red arrows where the McClellan Oscillator reached -250 range. The -250 Oscillator reading sometimes came before the bottom but in all cases it warned a significant bottom was near. The “Three Hump” theory we talked about on the first page of this report may be the correct view where market bounces near term and forms the third hump and corrects one more time down to complete the Right Shoulder. We are staying flat the SPX and Nasdaq for now.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. LTS long at 2.01 on 9/19/07, stop 1.79. Stopped out on LTS was hit at 1.79 on 11/7/07 for 11% loss.

Above is the chart of the HUI index with it’s McClellan Summation index (second window down from top). In general the HUI index follows the direction of the HUI McClellan Summation index. When HUI McClellan Summation index is above 30 and turns down, it is usually a good indication the HUI has seen a short term top (like now). A good indication for a bottom will occur when HUI McClellan reaches +10 or below and turns up. First support on the XAU comes in near the May 2006 high at the 170 level and next support comes in near the July 2007 high at 160 level. We plan to add new gold position on the next pull back in the XAU. We are watching PLM which as support near the 3.20. range. We are also watching RBY and TRE.
We are holding NXG, recent purchase at 3.26. Recent action on NXG suggests impulse wave up has started. Silver commercials remain at the bullish level and CDE is a silver stock and will be keeping this issue for now.
Bought TRE at 4.93 on 8/1/07 sold 10/1/07 at 5.85 for 19% gain. Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought UXG at 5.17 on 6/25/07 and sold 10/1/07 at 6.17 for 19% gain. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. Bought PLM at 3.73 on 6/1/07. Sold PLM on 10/10/07 at 3.75 for modest gain. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

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Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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