The Ord Oracle

November 5, 2007
Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Short SPX on 10/15/07 at 1548.71, covered 10/23 at 1519.59 for gain of 1.88%.
Monitoring purposes XAU: Flat.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
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S&P Market:

The chart above is the SPX. Resistance was at the swing high of 10/17 near the 1550 range and the SPX tested that level on 10/31 and did on equal volume and suggests that high may be tested again soon. A gap formed from 10/31 close to 11/1 open and that gap should now act as resistance on any rally back. The gap comes in at 1546 range. A low was made on 10/24 and tested the previous low of 10/22. The 10/24 test of 10/22 low came on higher volume and suggest the 10/24 (1490 range) will be tested again. If the 10/24 low (1490) range is tested on lighter volume then that would be a bullish sign for a bounce that may take the SPX back up to test the gap level near 1546 range. We have said in the past that the SPX may be developing a “Right Shoulder” of a Head and Shoulders Bottom. If the current trading range persists for another couple of weeks, then that would increase the probabilities that the big pattern that started back in June (see last Wednesday report) is indeed a bullish “Head and Shoulders Bottom”. Today’s decline tested Friday’s low on lighter volume and a bullish short term sign. So far the SPX has not tested the 10/24 low (1490) but if it does in the next day or so and tests that low on lighter volume also then that would create a bullish setup by that method and give an upside target to the gap level near 1546 range.

Above is the McClellan Summation index for the SPX. Today’s negative Advance/Decline line keeps the SPX McClellan Summation index heading lower and keeps the downtrend intact for now. If the Summation index turns up in the next couple of days it would be a bullish sign for a test of the gap level near 1546 range. Right now the SPX is range bound where 1480 range is support (SPX near this level now) and 1550 range resistance. Since the SPX broke Friday’s low on lighter volume today, this is evidence the market may be nearing a short term low. We would like to see the ARMS index exceed 2.00 as the 1480 range is tested as that would setup a bullish case for a short term bottom. We are staying flat the SPX and Nasdaq for now.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. LTS long at 2.01 on 9/19/07, stop 1.79.

On the XAU chart above, it still appears a “Three Drives to a Top” pattern is developing. This pattern has a minimum downside target to where the pattern began and in this case it’s near the 163 range. Also the July high comes in near 160 and is also support and below that comes in very strong support near 150 range. PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) is showing a short term bearish development and suggest a pull back is eminent here. There is also a bearish development in Price Relative to Gold (PRTG) where XAU made higher highs and PRTG made lower highs. We plan to go long the XAU on the next buy signal. We are holding NXG, recent purchase at 3.26. Last week’s action on NXG suggests impulse wave up has started. Silver commercials remain at the bullish level and CDE is a silver stock and will be keeping this issue for now.

Bought TRE at 4.93 on 8/1/07 sold 10/1/07 at 5.85 for 19% gain. Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought UXG at 5.17 on 6/25/07 and sold 10/1/07 at 6.17 for 19% gain. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. Bought PLM at 3.73 on 6/1/07. Sold PLM on 10/10/07 at 3.75 for modest gain. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

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Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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