The Ord Oracle

September 17, 2007

And The All New Market Analysis

Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Flat.
Monitoring purposes XAU: Flat.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 7/12/07 at 1547.70.
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NYSE market:

The Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO) is an overbought/oversold indicator that can assist in identifying short-term tops and bottoms in the NYSE. There are two versions, one using advances and declines (mid window), and one using advancing and declining volume (bottom window). Right now there is a short term negative divergence in the STO-B (Breadth) and STO-V (Volume) Oscillators which we have pointed out (in red) on the chart above. We have also on the chart above have pointed out an intermediate term positive divergence on STO-B and STO-V (in blue). We interrupt there if there is a short term pull back as suggested by the short term STO-B and STO-V it implies it should be bought in that the Intermediate term STO-B and STO-V are showing bullish divergence.

The Chart above is the Nasdaq with it’s STO-B (breadth) and STO-V (Volume) Oscillators. A bullish intermediate term bullish divergence did occur at the 8/16 low on the Nasdaq on the STO-B and STO-V. Since then the Nasdaq has rallied. Over the last couple of weeks the STO-B has shown a short term negative divergence where as the STO-V has not which may imply a more neutral stance on the Nasdaq. Today’s decline showed -1213 more decline issues then advancing issues on the NYSE and -1225 on the Nasdaq which in turn may turn down the Summation index for both the NYSE and Nasdaq. The markets usually decline when the Summation index is heading lower. A short term pull back may occur here. We will look for the next bullish setup to go long the market. An intermediate term bottom is in the process of being completed. We are staying flat the S&P and Nasdaq for now.
We are watching some stocks that appear about to start up legs. Two we are looking closely at are EGHT and LTS. LTS is a bank stock and there have been inside buying going on a couple of months ago. It may have hit bottom near 1.50 range. EGHT we have traded before and look like it’s at the end of a triangle pattern. We will keep you posted.
Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group.
Gold Market:

The chart on the last page is the HUI (Gold bugs index) with Volatility 21 day, Trin 10 day, McClellan Oscillator, 10 day moving average and 50 day moving average updated to last Friday (courtesy www.sesntimentrader.com ). When the “21 day Historical Volatility” reaches the up or lower bands, a short term turn can be expected for the HUI Index. Over the last couple of days the “21 day Historical Volatility” reached the lower band and suggest the market may stall near term. Also the previous high of July near the 370 on the HUI is natural resistance and is a short term barrier. The “10 Day Moving Average” is in overbought area and turning down and a short term negative sign.

Above is the Public Opinion chart for Gold. When the public become to bullish on gold, at least expect a short term pull back for the near term. This chart was updated to last Friday’s close and shows that the Public is to bullish on gold for short term and a short term contrarian sign. We are holding our gold equity positions and may add news one on the next retracement in the XAU.

Bought TRE at 4.93 on 8/1/07. Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought UXG at 5.17 on 6/25/07. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. Bought PLM at 3.73 on 6/1/07. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at 6.07.
Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

visit my website at www.marketweb.com/ord

Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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