Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn
Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com
(402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in
Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Flat.
Monitoring purposes XAU: Long XAU on 6/1/07 at 142.42. Neutral XAU on 8/31 at
140.80.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 7/12/07 at 1547.70.
We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit
card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 3:15
and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.
New Book release called "Master Traders" with Tim Ord on "The Secret Science
Of Price and volume. We will autograph the book in the wording you chose if
bought through The Ord Oracle. Our price $50 total including shipping.
SPY market:
The short term picture appears to be drawing a “Bearish Rising Wedge” pattern
and is a short term bearish development. The “Rising Wedge” is a pattern with
boundary lines connecting the highs and lows that meet out into an Apex. As
the market rallies and hits minor new highs the volume gradually decreases and
is an accurate description of what is occurring on the SPY. “Rising Wedge”
patterns have downside target to where the pattern began and in this case on the
SPY it would be near the 137 range. A test of the 8/16 low at 137 on SPY may be
seen this month and complete the bottoming process.
On last Wednesday report, we said, “The bigger picture for the NYSE is very
bullish. Big rallies occur in the NYSE when the NYSE McClellan Oscillator
reaches -300 range and then rallies to +250 or higher range. This setup on the
Oscillator occurred only twice before in the last ten years. The first time
came in October 1998 and again in June 2004. Both cases lead to strong rallies
that at least lasted several months. The McClellan Oscillator has again
produced this bullish setup. In late July the McClellan Oscillator reached
below minus 300 and hit a high yesterday of +259.70. A pull back can occur
when the Oscillator reaches past +250 and consolidate for several weeks (like in
June 2004) before the big advance begins, which fit well into the possible
“Rising Wedge” pattern mentioned above. Remember also that VTO (mentioned in
8/22 report) is a bullish intermediate term level as well as the Summation
index.” The Chat above is the NYSE common stocks only with it McClellan
Oscillator and summation index from Friday close. Next week is option
expiration week and the week before (this week) can produce volatility and
especially on Wednesday. The pull back in the McClellan Oscillator may be
starting. Previous times when the NYSE was making a bottom, a “Hook” was
produced in the Summation index when the Summation Index was at a very low level
(like now). The Summation index can pull back for several days up to a couple
of weeks which also corresponded to a pull back in the NYSE. When the Summation
index turned back up the strongest part of the rally began. Today’s
advance/decline line was negative and has turned down the Oscillator below the
“0” line which in turn turns down the Summation index. As long as the Summation
index is heading lower the NYSE should also head lower. A bullish setup will
occur the next time the Summation index turns back up. This will be the time we
may establish a long position in the SPX.
We are watching some stocks that appear about to start up legs. Two we are
looking closely at are EGHT and LTS. LTS is a bank stock and there have been
inside buying going on a couple of months ago. It may have hit bottom near 1.50
range. EGHT we have traded before and look like it’s at the end of a triangle
pattern. We will keep you posted.
Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap
area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group.
Gold Market:
The chart on the last page is the HUI (Gold bugs index) with Volatility 21
day, Trin 10 day, McClellan Oscillator, 10 day moving average and 50 day moving
average (courtesy
www.sesntimentrader.com ). The McClellan Oscillator on the HUI index had
done a good job of showing positive and negative divergence and short term turns
in this market. A positive divergence occurs when HUI makes lower lows and
McClellan Oscillator makes higher lows (Red lines) which has preceded short term
low in HUI. A negative divergence occurs when HUI makes higher highs and
McClellan Oscillator makes lower highs and have preceded highs in HUI. A big
bullish divergence occurred in the McClellan Oscillator at the August low.
From the August low, HUI has worked higher and so far there is no divergence in
the McClellan Oscillator which is bullish. However the “10 day Moving Average”
is overbought for the short term and suggests a pull back can happen here.
Support lies from 140 up to 147 on the XAU and will look for a buy signal in
that region. We are holding our gold equity positions and may add news one on
the next retracement in the XAU.
Bought TRE at 4.93 on 8/1/07. Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought UXG at
5.17 on 6/25/07. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. Bought PLM at 3.73 on 6/1/07. We
bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. We doubled
our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at
6.07.
Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit
www.ord-oracle.com.
email: tim@ord-oracle.com
visit my website at www.marketweb.com/ord
Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362
OEX Market Recommendations
1-900-933-6733
$2.25 a min.; 1-4 min.; 18 yrs. or older
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