The Ord Oracle

July 30, 2007

Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Flat
Monitoring purposes XAU: Long XAU on 6/1/07 at 142.42.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Long SPX on 7/12/07 at 1547.70.
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S&P Market:

Above is the chart of the NYSE index with its McClellan Oscillator and Summation index dating back to 1996. On Friday the McClellan Oscillator reached -344 and is a rare occurrence. Since 1996 the McClellan Oscillator reached below minus 300 six times (counting current condition) and in all cases the market was near or at a bottom and rallied for at least a couple of weeks and in some cases much longer. Therefore for at least short term we are expecting the market to at least stabilize and start a bounce. On the chart above we have circled in blue where the Oscillator reached greater then -300 and market rallied for a while before either going for a re-test of the low where the Oscillator originally reached -300 (in two chases) or fell to new lows (in one case). Therefore it’s important to watch how far the market rallies from here. A bullish case will be made if the Oscillator reaches past +200 on the next rally as that will imply the bull market is still enforce.

Trin 5 last 3 years:
The next chart above is the Trin 5. The Trin 5 has a good history of identifying market bottoms when it reaches 7.5 or higher. On the recent decline Trin 5 reached 6.77 and did not reach capitulation and is a little troubling. We have circled in Blue where the Oscillator reached -300 and the Trin 5 did not reach 7.5 or higher. The market fell back more in the coming days and the Trin 5 reached near the 7.5 range and then the market rallied.

The market is near a bottom (Oscillator reaches -344) but Trin 5 has not hit the bullish level of 7.5 level which implies the market may bounce some near term then fall back to a minor lower low before the real rally starts. The bigger trend still appears to be up. The shorter time frame of 30 to 90 days appears to be in the early stages of making a bottom. We are staying neutral on the SPX and Nasdaq for the 30 to 90 day period. A buy signal may develop on a re-test of today’s low.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group.
Gold Market:

Last Friday the XAU came down to 144 and found support. There is a trend line connecting the highs going back to September 2006. This trend line comes in at the 144 area also. Today the XAU rallied off of this support and is a positive sign. In up trends in the markets the RSI usually will finds support at the 50 range on pull backs. The RSI found support at the 50 range when the XAU find support at 144 range and is a positive divergence. We are expecting the current up leg in the XAU to turn into a major impulse rally that may last 12 months or longer rally to the 250 range. We are long the XAU at 142.42 on 6/1/07. we are looking to add addition Gold and silver holdings and one issue we are watching closely is WITM.

"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #1 gold timer for one year ending 1/13/06.
Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought UXG at 5.17 on 6/25/07. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. Bought PLM at 3.73 on 6/1/07. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
We doubled our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

visit my website at www.marketweb.com/ord

Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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