June 30, 2008
And The All New Market Analysis
Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn
Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com
(402) 486-0362
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"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and
#1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06. For 30 to 90 days horizons: Flat. Monitoring purposes XAU: LONG XAU on 12/18/07 at 162.05. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45 and 3:15. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord We will autograph the book in the wording you chose if bought through The Ord Oracle, call (402) 486-0362. |
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| Sentiment plays an important roll in picking bottoms in the market. The above chart is the Rydex Cash Flow ratio. This ratio measures inflow and outflows of money going in and out of Rydex bullish and bearish funds. When the Rydex Cash Flow Ratio reaches 1.10 range then the Rydex investor is taking a bearish stance and a bullish sentiment and the market is near an important low. Right now the Rydex Cash Flow ratio closed Friday at .96 and not in an area where usually where intermediate term lows form. However this ratio can change in a short period of time and we will keep a close eve on it. Another fact worth noting is that market has a history of rallying into a Presidential election which is this November so there could be a bullish signal developing shortly. The year after the election is normally the worst performing year for the Four year Presidential Cycle. Another sentiment gauge is the VIX on the next chart. |
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| The VIX measures fear and optimism as manifested in options activity. When large numbers of traders become fearful, the VIX reading rises, and when complacency about the market reigns, the VIX reading falls. And since the vast majority of put/call buyers are wrong and lose money, it's usually a smart move to fade (go counter to) what the VIX says the crowd is doing. Fear (Panic) usually comes at bottom and the VIX is a good measure when fear is present. We have marked at previous lows on the chart of the SPX above when VIX was near 35 and did a good job pick out significant lows. In June decline, you would expect the VIX to be approaching 35 but it hasnt. This condition shows that there is little fear in the market and not a bullish sign for the market. VIX agrees with the Rydex Cash Flow ratio which also shows complacency. Therefore, it the market does bounce from here, the VIX and Rydex Cash Flow ratio imply the rally would not go far and at best go back up and re-test the late May high near 1450 range on the SPX. |
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Above is the NYSE index with its McClellan Oscillator and Summation
index. When the Oscillator is near -230 or lower then in general the
market is near an area where a bounce can begin. The Oscillator closed
Friday at -224.78. Therefore downside on the NYSE is limited for now.
Since todays AD Line was still weak, no signal for a reversal to the
upside has been indicated yet. Ideally we would like to see the Rydex
Cash Flow Ratio and VIX to get into bullish areas when the Summation
index is about to turn up as this would trigger an idea bullish signal.
However, that may be too much to ask on the current bottoms process.
Staying flat for now. Sold 5/27/08 IVAN at 2.70=6% gain. Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Long POWR at 13.70 on 12/14/07. Gold Market: |
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On Wednesday report, we said, Not a big performance in the XAU over the
last several weeks, but that may change in July because we are expecting
strength to come into the market then. Well the strength in the XAU
came in on Last Thursday, the day after we wrote that sentence. On the
chart above, the PMO has turned up and a bullish triggered. Price
Relative to Gold in early May jumped above the red downtrend line and
triggered a buy signal on the bigger timeframes. Recently Price
relative to Gold (PRTG) jumped above the smaller red trend line on and
triggered a buy signal and marked the end of the month long
consolidation. We remain bullish on the XAU on the bigger time frames
and we are long the XAU from 12/18/07 at 162.05.
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email: tim@ord-oracle.com
visit my website at www.ord-oracle.com
Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362
OEX Market Recommendations
1-900-933-6733
$2.25 a min.; 1-4 min.; 18 yrs. or older
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Sold PMU on
2/29/08 at 1.20, bought at .81 for gain of 48%. Long KRY at
1.82 on 2/5/08. We are long PLM at 2.77 on 1/22/08. Bought CDE at
4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. We doubled our
positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price
at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume"
works, visit