Bottom Line On The Market

Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Flat
Monitoring purposes XAU: Flat XAU.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Flat.
We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 3:15 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.
New Book release called "Master Traders" with Tim Ord on "The Secret Science Of Price and volume. We will autograph the book in the wording you chose if bought through The Ord Oracle. Our price $50 total including shipping.
Short Interest Ratio on NYSE below (Courtesy of www.sentimenttrader.com ).

Above is the “Short Interest Ratio” for the NYSE. Sentiment plays a very important role in market direction and the “Short Interest Ratio” helps to define where that sentiment lies. At top there is very little shorts held and at bottoms there is a great deal. On the chart above short interest has been rising as the market has moved higher. This rising bearish sentiment is bullish for the market on the bigger timeframes and adds buying power (shorts have to cover pushing up prices). Therefore the bigger trend looks very bullish according to this chart and implies investors should be buying pullbacks.
Rydex Cash Flow Ratio for S&P 500 Market:

The above chart is the Rydex Cash flow Ratio of the S&P 500. Tops appear near the .75 range and bottoms appear near 1.10 range. Notice at the March 2007 low that the “Cash Flow Ratio” did trade above 1.10 and triggered a bullish signal. Currently the “Cash Flow Ratio” is neutral at .90. Support on the SPX lies at the previous highs of 1460 which is not far down from here and should hold as support. May historically is usually a weak month and the market may fall back to support. For the next several weeks the SPX may develop a trading range and trade sideways after which another rally phase may start.

Above is the S&P 500 SPDRS (SPY). Support comes in near the 146 range which is the previous high of lat February. The 146 range on the SPY equates to 1460 range on the SPX. The Bigger picture is bullish on the market according to the sentiment readings of “Short interest” and “Rydex Cash Flow Ratios”. Next week is Option Expiration week and volatility can increase in this timeframe. On the current rally on the SPY, volume has gradually decreased and suggests a pull back is likely for near term. During the week of option expiration week the market usually has a bullish bias. We will look of a bullish setup near the 1460 range on the SPX. Flat for now.

Nasdaq 100 market:
Chart above is the Nasdaq 100 McClellan Oscillator and Summation index. At the March low the McClellan Oscillator reached -100 level and warned that the Nasdaq 100 was making an important low. A couple of weeks later the Oscillator reached +75 and confirmed the bottom in March. The sentiment readings on the markets are bullish. Support comes in near the 1850 range. A double top formed on the NDX and the second top did have lighter volume and suggest the NDX may pause near current levels. The NDX Oscillator reading has been making lower highs as the NDX made higher highs and a short term negative divergence. A bullish setup could occur near the 1850 range possibly late this week or early next week. It appear the bigger trends are up. Flat for now.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Bought GNBT at 1.74 on 7/10/06, sold on 10/17 at 2.15 for 24% gain. biotech. Bought ARIA at 3.89 on 7/27/06, Pharmaceutical, sold 9/29/06 at 4.51 for 16% gain.
Gold Market:
Below is the chart of CMX Gold 100 and “Commit of Traders (C.O.T.) for Gold “Courtesy of www.sentimenTrader.com ”. The Commercials Net Positions give a clue to which way the gold market may head for the short term. When the Commercials record a reading near -750 usually the Gold market is near a low. When the Commercials reach a score near -1700 (like now) the gold market is near a short term high. Big rally begin when bearish sentiment is at extreme and the Price Relative to Gold is a good way to measure that extreme. Going back over seven years, we have found that when Price Relative to Gold closes below .20 on the weekly time frame the XAU is at a major low. Price Relative to Gold has hit .20 on a daily basis but has not hit .20 on the weekly timeframe yet. Therefore the consolidation on the XAU that has been going on for nearly a year is still on going. Once this year long consolidation is completed, we are expecting a major rally to begin that may take the XAU to 250 range. We still remain neutral on the XAU for now.

"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #1 gold timer for one year ending 1/13/06.
We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. Long TRE at 2.55 on 11/1/05, sold at 3.39 on 12/3/05 for 33% gain. Long NG at 8.47 on 11/2/05. Sold NG on 11/30 at 9.20 for gain of 9%. Long DROOY at 1.27 on 11/9/05, Sold 1/19/06 at 1.89 for 49% gain. Long AGT at .33 on 2/1/06, Sold at .66 on 4/21/06 for 100% gain. Long TRE at 6.84 on 3/6/06, sold 9/13 at 5.19 for loss 24% We bought TGB at 1.84 on 3/27, Sold on 8/10 at 2.34 for 27% gain. GRZ, bought at 6.30 on 5/19/06, sold 9/13 at 4.30 for loss of 32%.
We doubled our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. Bought RNO on 9/11/06 at 2.15. Sold 9/12 at 2.18 for 2.3% gain. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

visit my website at www.marketweb.com/ord

Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

OEX Market Recommendations
1-900-933-6733
$2.25 a min.; 1-4 min.; 18 yrs. or older