Bottom Line On The Market

April 2, 2007
Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Short SPX on 11/27/06 at 1381.95. Short a ½ position in the Nasdaq on 11/2/06 and on 1/3/07 for an average short at 2378.59.
Monitoring purposes XAU: Flat XAU.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: Short SPX On 3/21/06 at 1297.23.
We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 3:15 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.
New Book release called "Master Traders" with Tim Ord on "The Secret Science Of Price and volume. We will autograph the book in the wording you chose if bought through The Ord Oracle. Our price $50 total including shipping.
Spy Market:

The bigger trend is down and we are expecting and intermediate term decline to take the SPX down to near the 1140 range. Near term we are still expecting the SPY to touch the gap level at the 144.2 resistance level. We expect the 144.20 gap range to be exceeded to “Prove the Point”. If the gap level is tested on lighter volume and then closes below the gap a short term sell signal will be triggered. So far the gap range has not been interred and therefore no short term sell signal has been triggered for the SPY. The resistance at 144.20 on the SPY equates to 1442 on the SPX. The gap at the 144.20 level that formed on 2/27 had volume of 275 million shares. To get through the gap level volume would need to be 275 million shares or more. Therefore most likely the gap will be tested on lighter volume and become resistance and create a short term sell signal. If a short term sell signal gets triggered our short term downside target will be the previous low near the 137 level on the SPY. We are short the SPX at 1381.95 for an intermediate term downside target to 1140 range.
Nasdaq 100 market:
Below is the daily Nasdaq 100, (QQQQ). The Nasdaq 100 appears to be drawing a “Double Head and Shoulders Top”. The “Right Shoulder” may be forming now and should find resistance at the gap level near 44.50. The late February declining leg broke the previous swing low of 1/3 on higher volume and that confirms the downtrend. An uptrend cannot occur when a market breaks a previous swing low on higher volume. Therefore it appears the top is in. We do not expect the market to rally past the gap level at the 44.50 range in that volume on the gap day came in at 318 million shares. To get through the gap, volume would need to be at least 318 million shares and that is unlikely to occur. Most “Head and Shoulders” patterns are symmetric in time and price. The “Left Shoulder” took three weeks to form and therefore, the “Right Shoulder” also may take three weeks to complete and may take another week or so before this process is complete. Also notice that the Left Shoulder had a double top. If price symmetry continues then the Right Shoulder should also have a double top. Therefore another test of the gap level near 44.50 range may be seen to complete a double top on Right Shoulder before the market heads lower. We hold an average short position on the Nasdaq at 2378.59. Our downside target on the Nasdaq is near the 1900 level. Shorter term trade, on 3/23 Short QQQQ at 44.17, Head and Shoulders Top gives short term downside target to 39.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Bought GNBT at 1.74 on 7/10/06, sold on 10/17 at 2.15 for 24% gain. biotech. Bought ARIA at 3.89 on 7/27/06, Pharmaceutical, sold 9/29/06 at 4.51 for 16% gain.
Gold Market:
Below is StreetTracks gold Trust (GLD) in the Ord-volume format. GLD is the trust for gold and is 1/10 of the price and Gold. Since GLD trades in equity shares we can do an Ord-Volume chart. The Ord-Volume format measures the average daily volume between the swings (legs) which we call Ord-Volume. By taking the average daily volume of the leg a trader can identify which way the energy is pushing. The legs with the highest average daily volume has the most energy and is the direction the market will head. By comparing the Ord-Volume from one leg to another a trader can see which way the energy is pushing. What we want to focus on is the similaries of the May 2006 high to the recent March 2007 high. In the May 2006 high a “Sign of Weakness” appeared after the high of 72.26 was seen that had Ord-Volume near double compared to previous up leg going into the May 2006 high. This condition shows that energy had switched from up to down and either a consolidation was beginning or a down trend. The consolidation was the outcome. On the current time frame a smaller degree pattern similar to the May 2006 high has developed with the same Ord-Volume short term bearish ratios. This pattern predicts a pull back for GLD down to the previous low near the 59.66 level. Our target for the low in the XAU is near the 115 range. The next major impulse wave up should start near the 115 range on the XAU. We are neutral on the XAU for now.”

"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #1 gold timer for one year ending 1/13/06.
We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. Long TRE at 2.55 on 11/1/05, sold at 3.39 on 12/3/05 for 33% gain. Long NG at 8.47 on 11/2/05. Sold NG on 11/30 at 9.20 for gain of 9%. Long DROOY at 1.27 on 11/9/05, Sold 1/19/06 at 1.89 for 49% gain. Long AGT at .33 on 2/1/06, Sold at .66 on 4/21/06 for 100% gain. Long TRE at 6.84 on 3/6/06, sold 9/13 at 5.19 for loss 24% We bought TGB at 1.84 on 3/27, Sold on 8/10 at 2.34 for 27% gain. GRZ, bought at 6.30 on 5/19/06, sold 9/13 at 4.30 for loss of 32%.
We doubled our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. Bought RNO on 9/11/06 at 2.15. Sold 9/12 at 2.18 for 2.3% gain. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

visit my website at www.marketweb.com/ord

Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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