The Ord Oracle

January 7, 2008

And The All New Market Analysis

Tim Ord, Editor 16928 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461
www.ord-oracle.com (402) 486-0362
"Timer Digest" Tim Ord ranked #5 for 6 months ending 10/6/06 and #1 in Gold for one year ending 1/13/06.
For 30 to 90 days horizons: Long SPX on 11/28/07 at 1469.02. Sold 1/4/08 at 1411.63 for loss 3.9%.
Monitoring purposes XAU: LONG XAU on 12/18/07 at 162.05.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Sector Watch: Long Healthcare (XLV) at 36.35 on 11/28/07
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Above is the Rydex Cash flow Ratio. The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio measures the ratio of cash going into the bullish fund compared to the bearish fund. Right now these traders are holding on to the bullish funds and show these traders are to bullish and a bearish sign for the market. To create a bullish sign the Rydex Cash Flow ratio should drop down to the 1.05 range or lower.

Above is the ARMS index for the NYSE in the daily, the 4 day moving Average (DMA), and the 10 DMA for the time span starting in 2000 and ending December 2002. Turn your attention to the 10 DMA. Friday the ARMS index 10 DMA closed at 1.65. In the bear market that started in 2001 the ARMS index 10 DMA also reached 1.60 or higher eight times and in four cases did not stop a decline. We have circled those cases with red circles. Therefore if the current ARMS index 10 DMA only produces a minor bounce or none at all is will be a very bearish scenario in that it’s taking on the characteristics of bear market behavior instead of bull market behavior. Also I might add that Friday’s decline did not spark panic by the options traders nor the Rydex traders. Worthwhile bottoms form when panic is at extreme.

Bought Ivan (Invanhoe Energy) 4/13/06 at 2.55,Energy stock. Could go to Gap area (November 2003) near 5.40. On 4/2, we Bought ASTM at 1.92, Biotech group. Long Healthcare sector (XLV) at 36.35 on 11/28/07. Long POWR at 13.70 on 12/14/07.

Friday’s decline broke through the gap area near 1435 range on near equal volume and suggests a valid break through support. Resistance lies at resistance at the previous low of 12/18 near the 1435 range. If that area is tested on lighter volume then the bearish scenario would increase. The SPX may be heading to the August low near the 1375 range. We will be watching the 1435 range for a potential bearish setup.

Bullish Percent Index shows the % of Point and Figure buy signals for all the stocks in the SPX. Current the Bullish Percent Index has had a bearish crossover and is on a sell signal.

Gold Market:

Above is the daily XAU chart with its Price Relative to Gold ratio and PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator). Last week strong rise in the XAU has pushed the Price Relative to Gold ratio above the downtrend line shown on the chart above and has triggered a longer term bullish signal. Also the daily PMO has had a bullish crossover and triggered a buy signal by that method. PMO bullish crossover signals can last several months. Support now lies near the 178 range on the XAU. The rally since August was accompanied by the larger gold stocks and the smaller gold issues only so far has had modest gains. As the bull market matures in the gold issues the smaller gold issues will catch up, so be patience. We are holding NXG, recent purchase at 3.26, has support near 2.80 range. We are also holding CDE (long at 4.08, support near 3.90). We are holding a long term position in KGC at 6.07 and PMU at .81. We are long the XAU at 162.05 on 12/18/07.

Bought CDE at 4.08 on 7/10/07. Bought NXG at 3.26 on 6/4/07. We bought PMU (5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81. We doubled our positions in KGC on (7/30/04) at 5.26 and we now have an average price at 6.07. Long NXG average of 2.26. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

email: tim@ord-oracle.com

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Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362

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